Monday, February 16, 2015

AAPL: To the sky or time to die!

On Jan 6th 2011, with price at $49 (price adjusted for splits) , i attempted to call the demise of $AAPL, by posting a monthly chart. Today with with price at $127 I attempt the same madness (calling tops without waiting for confirmation) as counts on multiple time frames all point to downside for the next few months. .
Monthly (just for comparison with the previous post)

Weekly (negative RSI divergence)


Daily (few questions remain unresolved)
1. Is the red 5 over yet or will it extend: Confirmation of a breakdown is if we break 105 in a hurry.
2. Is the red 1 actually a green/blue count (1,2,1,2,1) which will lead to a green/blue (4,5,4,5) to finish the pattern.

Targets will be posted in an update once we see an initial move down.




Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Three Ways of Counting the Move in the DAX

Yesterday at a ADS Seminar Mr. Nour Eldeen Al Hammoury asked the crowd if the dax made an ABC move in an Elliott Wave context. The move was symmetric and could be termed a 1:1 symmetric move, but in an Elliott Wave context the answer is a simple NO as ABC's do not make new highs unless the B is part of another B within an expanded flat. This count is highly unlikely since the B wave is 8%+ now over the A wave on the larger wave count as demonstrated below.




What is more likely is one of the below counts.
1. Final move has just ended.
Daily.

Weekly
Price has also hit the top of a trend channel so some sort of pullback would seem appropriate.

2. The ABC in question is actually a Wave 1 of an ending diagonal (wave 5) which consists of 5 overlapping ABC's shaped in a wedge,
This is the one i think is most likely.

Tuesday, February 3, 2015

BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Long Term Count Extension+ Extension

My earlier post edited for further extensions.
My last post, stated a condition "This count rests on the condition that the last high that we put in on Sept 22 at 27,254 stays intact, so this short term condition controls the longer term outlook." The market has spoken and we did break 27,254 with 5 small waves up and new high now at 28,822 on November 28th. We have again extended with another 5 waves up in an expanding triangle that ended on 29786 on Jan 28th. This now in hindsight can be counted as the final 5th wave of the impulse i thought had ended on September 22nd and again on November 28th. Any new 5 wave moves above the 28822 29786 high will invalidate the count. The new count is below.
The current juncture also coincides with the trend channel from the 2008 low.



A closer view of the final count is below.

  The outlook remains the same: an ABC down to the 21k-22k area.