Sunday, September 28, 2014

BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Long Term Count

I thought of posting my Long Term counts last week but EWI announced free week which started on Wednesday and then i thought it would just be redundant when the worlds favorite EW source releases the same information. So i finally got a chance to view their their Asian forecast charts and specifically that of the Sensex. How wrong i was......
The difference in the long term counts is significant. Their long term charts are very bullish while mine are very bearish. So while the mainstream presents a bullish chart i will give you the bearish alternate. This count rests on the condition that the last high that we put in on Sept 22 at 27,254 stays intact, so this short term condition controls the longer term outlook.

The market has just hit the long term trend channel, which makes me think there will be a pullback. The question is: Is it going to be significant?? All bullish counts have a 1st wave label for the November 2010 top and a 2nd wave ending at the December 2011 bottom. That makes the line in the sand the 21,079 level. I think this level will be broken within a year. If that is the case, then the count will revert to my bearish count presented above. Short term moves will clarify the current picture.

In summary i am looking for an ABC down to the 20k-21k area and then a final up ABC move into the 30k-35k area to complete a wave contracting triangle wave V.