A year ago i opined that the announcement of the Dubai Expo 2020 would produce peak euphoria for few months which once dissipated would have a negative effect on the DFMGI. The Index at that time was at approx 2900. The DFMGI 6 months later put in a top at 5400 on May 14th 2014. Since the top it has reversed almost all of 2014 gains with a drop back down to approx 3367 today.
As it stands the market is in no mans land, but there are 2 counts that could play out as seen on the monthly chart below.
In the festive spirit: Green is the bull count and Red is the bear count. The current move can either be a new bullish 1st wave followed by a 2 in progress or a bearish (X) wave with an ABC lower to follow.
Both counts of the current move in question are illustrated below on the weekly time frame.
My current preference is the bearish count because i initially thought that the 3635 level from 2007 and again in 2014 would provide support. That level was broken with ease, further todays close was below the Green ABC channel and marginally below the 50% retracement. If the DFMGI does not pop up hard within this week and maintain the channel and the 50% retrace, i will consider that proof that the downside is not yet done and will then look to see if the 61.8% at 2854 provides any support.
Also if the year end closes with prices right here. on a yearly chart we will be left with one big shooting star pattern, which is a sign of further nastiness to come.
As it stands the market is in no mans land, but there are 2 counts that could play out as seen on the monthly chart below.
In the festive spirit: Green is the bull count and Red is the bear count. The current move can either be a new bullish 1st wave followed by a 2 in progress or a bearish (X) wave with an ABC lower to follow.
Both counts of the current move in question are illustrated below on the weekly time frame.
My current preference is the bearish count because i initially thought that the 3635 level from 2007 and again in 2014 would provide support. That level was broken with ease, further todays close was below the Green ABC channel and marginally below the 50% retracement. If the DFMGI does not pop up hard within this week and maintain the channel and the 50% retrace, i will consider that proof that the downside is not yet done and will then look to see if the 61.8% at 2854 provides any support.
Also if the year end closes with prices right here. on a yearly chart we will be left with one big shooting star pattern, which is a sign of further nastiness to come.
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