BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Count Short Term July 26

I decided that this needed to be posted before the open.
The last post on July 14th called for a top at 18,824. That target was missed by 24 pts.
Although the market did fall, it did not completely go to hell, instead it traced out another extended X wave followed by another A-B-C which ends the counter trend rally, which the chart below demonstrates.
For the ending of C i had a few targets in mind.
Typical A=C (18986)
76.4% retracement (18941.65)
Yesterdays top of 18932.27 is below these levels by just a few points and the 5 wave structure on a 1 minute chart of the market from the top into the close seems to indicate that the top is finally in.

Translation for dummies:
1. Top is in market may open at 18900 but should sell off immediately today.
2. By the end of the week we should be way below 18660 and possibly even below 18400.
3. Any move above 19000 will void the current count and i will post the next alternative.

BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Count Short Term

Bombay has experienced 3-4 bomb blasts last evening. Thought the market would fall??
The blasts dont seem to have shaken the wave counts for the Sensex. As seen from the count below the sensex started a 5 wave pattern which was completed on Tuesday 12th. Today's rally is part of a C wave will probably take us upto 18824 which is a 61.8% retracement of the leg down that started last Friday morning.


The next down move should start after the completion of wave C, then the news outlets can blame the FII's for selling.
As i post this the market is currently at 18746.44.
FYI: My long term count highly relies on this short term move playing out.

BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Count

My previous post evaluated 2 short term scenarios for the Sensex.

As of Friday the 1st scenario has played its self out without the major retracement. In the post i had suggested a final target between (19000-19200). The Market opened and reached an intraday high of 19131.70, which satisfies my target and also a 5 wave structure, which has been marked in the above 5 Day chart. 5 wave structures are predominant in both waves 3 and 5.

Now on to the longer term chart, which is the updated version of the chart initially posted on June 5th.

The short term 5 waves up in the short term chart, completes a (C) counter-trend wave, which is the final retracement wave of the down move that spans the 14th of April to 25th May. This means that a new move down has started since Friday mornings highs, and should initially take us straight down to 17500 or lower.

Summary.
1. Target 17500 or lower. (Blue Box)
2. If 19131.70 is broken to the upside the longer term count and all targets will have to be reevaluated.

BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Count

Just a quick update on short term count of the Sensex.
The big question here is whether the top on July 1st the end of a 3rd wave or the end of a 5th wave.
1. If it was the end of the 3rd wave then the Sensex has a little higher to go probably (19,000-19,200) after a brief pullback probably to the overnight gap up from June 29th (18,506-18,598). And then finally all the way down through the Feb and June lows.
or
2. If it was the end of the 5th wave then the Sensex goes lower and breaks all the way through the Feb and June lows.

I give the first scenario an edge based on smaller counts which could be debated.

Summary
Short term traders could monitor the (19,000-19,200)levels to see if they hold.
Long term buy and hold can start selling immediately.