Monday, February 16, 2015

AAPL: To the sky or time to die!

On Jan 6th 2011, with price at $49 (price adjusted for splits) , i attempted to call the demise of $AAPL, by posting a monthly chart. Today with with price at $127 I attempt the same madness (calling tops without waiting for confirmation) as counts on multiple time frames all point to downside for the next few months. .
Monthly (just for comparison with the previous post)

Weekly (negative RSI divergence)


Daily (few questions remain unresolved)
1. Is the red 5 over yet or will it extend: Confirmation of a breakdown is if we break 105 in a hurry.
2. Is the red 1 actually a green/blue count (1,2,1,2,1) which will lead to a green/blue (4,5,4,5) to finish the pattern.

Targets will be posted in an update once we see an initial move down.




Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Three Ways of Counting the Move in the DAX

Yesterday at a ADS Seminar Mr. Nour Eldeen Al Hammoury asked the crowd if the dax made an ABC move in an Elliott Wave context. The move was symmetric and could be termed a 1:1 symmetric move, but in an Elliott Wave context the answer is a simple NO as ABC's do not make new highs unless the B is part of another B within an expanded flat. This count is highly unlikely since the B wave is 8%+ now over the A wave on the larger wave count as demonstrated below.




What is more likely is one of the below counts.
1. Final move has just ended.
Daily.

Weekly
Price has also hit the top of a trend channel so some sort of pullback would seem appropriate.

2. The ABC in question is actually a Wave 1 of an ending diagonal (wave 5) which consists of 5 overlapping ABC's shaped in a wedge,
This is the one i think is most likely.

Tuesday, February 3, 2015

BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Long Term Count Extension+ Extension

My earlier post edited for further extensions.
My last post, stated a condition "This count rests on the condition that the last high that we put in on Sept 22 at 27,254 stays intact, so this short term condition controls the longer term outlook." The market has spoken and we did break 27,254 with 5 small waves up and new high now at 28,822 on November 28th. We have again extended with another 5 waves up in an expanding triangle that ended on 29786 on Jan 28th. This now in hindsight can be counted as the final 5th wave of the impulse i thought had ended on September 22nd and again on November 28th. Any new 5 wave moves above the 28822 29786 high will invalidate the count. The new count is below.
The current juncture also coincides with the trend channel from the 2008 low.



A closer view of the final count is below.

  The outlook remains the same: an ABC down to the 21k-22k area.

Sunday, December 14, 2014

Dubai Financial Markets General Index Elliott Wave: What a Year!

A year ago i opined that the announcement of the Dubai Expo 2020 would produce peak euphoria for few months which once dissipated would have a negative effect on the DFMGI. The Index at that time was at approx 2900. The DFMGI 6 months later put in a top at 5400 on May 14th 2014. Since the top it has reversed almost all of 2014 gains with a drop back down to approx 3367 today.
As it stands the market is in no mans land, but there are 2 counts that could play out as seen on the monthly chart below.
In the festive spirit: Green is the bull count and Red is the bear count. The current move can either be a new bullish 1st wave followed by a 2 in progress or a bearish (X) wave with an ABC lower to follow.


Both counts of the current move in question are illustrated below on the weekly time frame.

My current preference is the bearish count because i initially thought that the 3635 level from 2007 and again in 2014 would provide support. That level was broken with ease, further todays close was below the Green ABC channel and marginally below the 50% retracement. If the DFMGI does not pop up hard within this week and maintain the channel and the 50% retrace, i will consider that proof that the downside is not yet done and will then look to see if the 61.8% at 2854 provides any support.
Also if the year end closes with prices right here. on a yearly chart we will be left with one big shooting star pattern, which is a sign of further nastiness to come.
 

Monday, December 8, 2014

BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Long Term Count Extension

My last post, stated a condition "This count rests on the condition that the last high that we put in on Sept 22 at 27,254 stays intact, so this short term condition controls the longer term outlook." The market has spoken and we did break 27,254 with 5 small waves up and new high now at 28,822 on November 28th. This now in hindsight can be counted as the final 5th wave of the impulse i thought had ended on September 22nd. Any new 5 wave moves above the 28822 high will invalidate the count. The new count is below.



The outlook remains the same: an ABC down to the 21k-22k area and then a final up ABC move into the 30k-35k area to complete a wave V within a contracting triangle (which i shall display when the market is ripe for a major move down).

Side Note: While on holiday in India I stumbled on this FII Net Inflow Chart in one of the local Newspapers. What is interesting to note is that that last highest inflow was in 2010 and 2011 turned out to be an approximate -23% year. With record high Net FII Inflows will 2015 turn out to be another lousy year?? I think so!

Sunday, September 28, 2014

BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Long Term Count

I thought of posting my Long Term counts last week but EWI announced free week which started on Wednesday and then i thought it would just be redundant when the worlds favorite EW source releases the same information. So i finally got a chance to view their their Asian forecast charts and specifically that of the Sensex. How wrong i was......
The difference in the long term counts is significant. Their long term charts are very bullish while mine are very bearish. So while the mainstream presents a bullish chart i will give you the bearish alternate. This count rests on the condition that the last high that we put in on Sept 22 at 27,254 stays intact, so this short term condition controls the longer term outlook.

The market has just hit the long term trend channel, which makes me think there will be a pullback. The question is: Is it going to be significant?? All bullish counts have a 1st wave label for the November 2010 top and a 2nd wave ending at the December 2011 bottom. That makes the line in the sand the 21,079 level. I think this level will be broken within a year. If that is the case, then the count will revert to my bearish count presented above. Short term moves will clarify the current picture.

In summary i am looking for an ABC down to the 20k-21k area and then a final up ABC move into the 30k-35k area to complete a wave contracting triangle wave V.

Sunday, April 6, 2014

The Emirates Commercial with Cristiano and Pele is Top Notch.

If I were forced to make a commercial with Pele and Cristiano, the 3rd and maybe 7th greatest player in the history of the game, the result would be the Emirates commercial. For those that know me as an Argentinean and Barcelona fan, such a commercial would be expected.
The elements of the commercial are just as i would have depicted them.
1. The two biggest egos in football getting deflated by the other presence.
2. Ignoramus fans that fail to equally acknowledge the presence of great players in their own right.
3. Seemingly proper stiff older generation Brit fans with all the facts.
4. Yuppie Brit fan of Indo/Pak origin.

Yes they all travel Emirates Business!


The EK agency obviously got short-changed in the past and is taking revenge!